El Niño Update
By Mlungisi Shabalala, 31 August 2023
uMngeni-uThukela Water continues to monitor the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal. The latest ENSO status and projections published by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society on 10th August 2023 indicate a 100% likelihood of El Niño throughout the upcoming spring season. This strong El Niño signal is expected to be sustained to mid-summer. El Niño is associated with dry and hot conditions, posing a risk to water resources availability (see previous blogs here for a detailed explanation of the ENSO phenomenon).
Australia’s Beareu of Meteorology also monitors the ENSO status, through the use of four levels, namely, (i) Inactive, (ii) Watch, (ii) Alert and (iv) Active (El Niño/ La Niña). According to the latest assessment (15th August 2023), the ENSO outlook is currently on El Niño Alert level and El Niño conditions have resulted in 70% of the cases where the alert level was reached (ENSO Outlook – an alert system for the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (bom.gov.au). This information, combined with the IRI projections, indicates that there is a strong likelihood for the development of an El Niño cycle in the upcoming spring and summer seasons.
Commensurate with the relatively above-normal rainfall received in parts of KwaZulu-Natal during the end of the preceding summer season, most dams have maintained relatively high storage levels as we approach the spring season. Therefore, the risk of non-supply for uMngeni-uThukela’s area of operation remains low for the remainder of 2023. However, climate models continue to predict a strong likelihood of a hot and dry summer (i.e. El Niño). Hot and dry conditions will have a direct impact on water resources availability through low recharge/rainfall and high evaporation losses in dams. It is recommended that stakeholders remain alert and contribute towards the protection and conservation of the already-stressed water resources. uMngeni-uThukela Water will issue an update at the end of September 2023. See latest dam levels here.
