uMngeni-uThukela Water (UUW) continues to monitor the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signal and its potential impact on water resources. According to the latest (mid-January) assessment, El Niño conditions in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean remain strong, consistent with the on-going El Niño event. The Southern Oscillation Index, however, was in the neutral region (+3.7) during January 2023.
According to the latest climate model projections, strong El Niño conditions will continue to prevail for the remainder of the South African summer season, with neutral conditions likely to develop during mid-autumn (see Australian Bureau of Meteorology and International Research Institute for Climate and Society for detailed information on climate model predictions). Therefore, an El Niño advisory remains until the next assessment (mid-February).
Similar to December 2023, uMngeni-uThukela Water’s area of operation continued to receive normal to above-normal rainfall during January 2024. As a result, all dams managed by UUW were above fully supply capacity on 01st February 2024, except the Spring Grove Dam (95%), as well as dams managed at low storage levels for safety reasons. Based on the current water resource status, there is no risk of non-supply in UUW’s area of operation in the short-term.
*Dam levels managed for safety reasons.
| Site Name |
Storage level (%) |
|
| Today | Last Year | |
| Henley Dam | 105 | 107 |
| Hazelmere Dam* | 83 | 54 |
| Umzinto Dam | 100 | 100 |
| Inanda Dam | 102 | 103 |
| iMvutshane Dam* | 87 | 86 |
| Mearns Dam | 106 | 121 |
| Nagle Dam | 101 | 102 |
| Spring Grove Dam | 95 | 102 |
| Nungwane Dam | 102 | 101 |
| Albert Falls Dam | 101 | 102 |
| Home Farm Dam | 104 | 102 |
| Olifantskop Dam | 106 | 116 |
| Ludeke Dam* | 68 | 53 |
| Midmar Dam | 100 | 101 |
| Mhlabatshane Dam | 101 | 101 |
| Woodstock Dam | 91 | 85 |
| Spioenkop Dam | 101 | 100 |
| Wagendrift Dam | 101 | 102 |
| Goedertrouw Dam | 100 | 100 |
Most global climate models suggest that the El Niño cycle is approaching its peak. Therefore, it is important for all stakeholders to remain alert for the remainder of the summer season. February is traditionally the hottest month of the year in UUW’s area of operation and climate models predict above-normal maximum temperatures for February and March 2024 in this area.
Water loss through evaporation increases with temperature; therefore, the projected high temperatures may pose a risk to water resources availability. Water users are encouraged to continue to use water efficiently by following the home-based water conservation tips issued by UUW on a weekly basis. uMngeni-uThukela Water will issue an update at the end of February 2024.
